http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12182/1079 KAE Working Papers Sun, 12 Apr 2026 01:46:10 GMT 2026-04-12T01:46:10Z http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12182/1444 The gravity of electromobility. An early investigation of structural change in automotive industry Baran, Jan; Czechowski, Patryk; Mućk, Jakub In this paper we examine the role of the electromobility transformation for exports of the automotive sector. To do so, we propose a novel mapping of granular codes of automotive products into three categories: (i) combustion-specific, (ii) neutral, and (iii) electric-specific. We estimate a standard gravity model of the trade flows of automotive products, comparing the three categories with each other. We demonstrate that key drivers of export of the electric-specific products are similar to the combustion-specific ones. However, exports related to electric vehicles are more technologically intensive and supported by either a domestic R&D potential or international knowledge spillovers through FDI. In particular, export-oriented production of electric-specific intermediates proves to be to a large extent R&D intensive. Our results also suggest that the ongoing structural change in the automotive industry leads rather to intra-industry reorganization than to more fundamental restructuring of existing Global Value Chains. Sun, 01 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12182/1444 2026-03-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12182/1441 The redistributive power of business cycle fluctuations Bielecki, Marcin; Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał; Kolasa, Marcin How do business cycles redistribute between generations, what are the redistribution channels and what role is played by monetary policy? We construct a New-Keynesian life-cycle model and estimate it for the United States. Business cycles redistribute significantly: fluctuations impact welfare of some cohorts by an equivalent of 30% of annual consumption. These first-order effects do not net out over a typical life cycle: some cohorts have been much less lucky than others. Life cycle aspects also amplify second-order costs of fluctuations. Monetary policy shocks are highly redistributive and, hence play an over-proportional role in driving redistribution: they are responsible for over 20% of its total amount. Systematic monetary policy has a quantitatively significant impact on redistribution as well: policy that responds strongly to inflation and output can substantially increase intergenerational redistribution. Sun, 01 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12182/1441 2026-02-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12182/1440 Evaluation of the underreporting of income across households in Bulgaria: extending the Pissarides-Weber approach Dybka, Piotr; Karska, Magdalena; Łopusińki, Maciej; Torój, Andrzej We estimate the personal income tax (PIT) gap in Bulgaria using the Pissarides and Weber (1989) methodology (“traces of true income” approach), which compares the relationship between food expenditure and income of self-employed and other employees. Our analysis relies on a unique anonymized dataset prepared by the National Statistical Institute from Household Budget Survey and National Revenue Administration records, providing a more reliable measure of income than survey data alone. Extending the standard PW framework, we estimate under-reporting not only among the self-employed but also among private-sector employees. Our results show that unreported labour income averaged 6.37% of GDP during 2017–2021 (excluding 2020), with private-sector employees contributing 5.36% and the self-employed 1.01%. The PIT gap amounted to 13.8% of theoretical revenues, while the social security contribution gap reached 16.5%, corresponding to lost revenues of 0.54% and 1.71% of GDP, respectively. Moreover, our analysis also shows that households with children and younger earners are more prone to under-reporting. These findings underscore the importance of accounting for household characteristics when designing policies to mitigate tax non-compliance. Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12182/1440 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12182/1439 Beliefs That Move the Economy: Shocks to Firms’ and Households’ Inflation Expectations Galiński, Paweł This paper examines shocks to inflation expectations and argues that distinguishing between households’ and firms’ expectations is crucial for understanding their macroeconomic role. First, using an analytical example, I demonstrate that shocks to firms’ expectations are stagflationary, whereas shocks to households’ expectations are expansionary. Second, household expectations are found to be more exposed to expectation shocks than those of firms. Third, shocks to firms' inflation expectations are a key driver of output, inflation, and real wages, while shocks to households' expectations contribute  primarily to wage dynamics. These results imply that monetary policy should place greater weight on firms’ expectations than on those of households. Sun, 01 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12182/1439 2026-02-01T00:00:00Z