The Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered severe disruptions in the European energy markets and caused significant shifts in global natural gas flows. In this paper we investigate to what extent this European shock has ...

We explore the effects of fiscal policy shocks on aggregate output and inflation. We use the novel Bayesian econometric methodology of Baumeister and Hamilton applied to the fiscal structural vector autoregressive model ...

This paper proposes an extension of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) model that accounts for the trade linkages within the Global Value Chains (GVCs). In the modified FEER framework, both backward and forward ...

The paper investigates the price system and the wage equation in the presence of taxes. Price formation is analysed at three levels: producer’s prices, trade in consumer goods and, separately, in services, and at the ...

The economic literature has for a long time been looking for explanations of a very strong international correlation of business cycles. This paper shows empirically that common fluctuations can to some degree be the effect ...

This paper extends the Laubach-Williams (2003) framework, which is widely used to estimate the natural rate of interest, to make it more suitable for studying small open economies. The model is augmented with consumer ...

The crisis has shown that a drop in liquidity, as well as the shortened maturity of interbank transactions, has caused many problems for banks. We analyze how the introduction of a bank levy on bank assets ...

We quantify intraday volatility connectedness between oil and key financial assets and assess how it is related to uncertainty and sentiment measures. For that purpose, we integrate the well-known spillover methodology ...

The paper presents the analysis of the long run causality behaviour between money and prices in the Polish economy during the transition period. The study makes use of the monetary inflation model known as the P-star model, ...

DSGE models have recently become one of the most frequently used tools in policy analysis. Nevertheless, their forecasting proprieties are still unexplored. In this article we address this problem by examining the quality ...