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Reaction functions of the Polish central bankers. A logit approach
(2005-05-22)
Paper presents the analysis of individual reactions functions of Polish Monetary Policy Council (MPC) members in the years 2004–2005. In the period under study the Polish central bank (National Bank of Poland) used the ...
Beliefs That Move the Economy: Shocks to Firms’ and Households’ Inflation Expectations
(2026-02)
This paper examines shocks to inflation expectations and argues that distinguishing between households’ and firms’ expectations is crucial for understanding their macroeconomic role. First, using an analytical example, I ...
Natural Rate of Interest in a Small Open Economy with Application to CEE Countries
(2023-09)
This paper extends the Laubach-Williams (2003) framework, which is widely used to estimate the natural rate of interest, to make it more suitable for studying small open economies. The model is augmented with consumer ...
Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Behavioral Open Economy Model
(2025-03)
We analyze the implications of adding boundedly rational agents a la Gabaix (2020) to the canonical New Keynesian open economy model. We show that accounting for myopia mitigates several ``puzzling" aspects of the relationship ...
Central bank credibility, long-term yields and the effects of monetary integration
(2021-01)
Forming a monetary union implies equalization of short-term interest rates across the member states as monetary policy is delegated to a common central bank, but also leads to integration of risk-free bond markets. In this ...
Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing Using Mid-sized Bayesian Vector Autoregressions
(2021-10)
The paper estimates macroeconomic effects and decomposes transmission channels of quantitative easing in the United States using 15-variable Bayesian vector autoregressive model with stochastic search variable selection ...
Is Poland at risk of the zero lower bound?
(2016-07)
In early 2015, the policy (open market operations) rate of Narodowy Bank Polski was reduced to an all-time low of 1.5%. At the same time, prices of consumer goods and services dropped by 1.5% in year-on-year terms. This ...
The redistributive power of business cycle fluctuations
(2026-02)
How do business cycles redistribute between generations, what are the redistribution channels and what role is played by monetary policy? We construct a New-Keynesian life-cycle model and estimate it for the United States. ...
Why may large economies suffer more at the zero lower bound?
(2016-06)
This paper compares the consequences of hitting the zero lower bound in small open and large closed economies. I costruct a two-economy New Kenynesian model and calibrate it so that one economy is small and open and the ...
Monetary and fiscal policy in a two-country model with behavioral expectations
(2025-03)
We check how monetary and fiscal policies (in particular their open-economy dimensions) are affected by expectations being behavioral in the spirit of Gabaix (2020). We first show that the data strongly favor this setting ...












