KAE Working Papers
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Celem serii KAE Working Papers jest natychmiastowe udostępnianie wyników badań naukowych środowisku akademickiemu, co pozwala na doskonalenie prowadzonych badań naukowych i bardziej intensywną dyskusję akademicką. Zapraszamy pracowników Kolegium oraz wszystkich studentów oraz współpracowników do publikowania aktualnych wyników badań w ramach serii. KAE Working Papers powstały w marcu 2016 r. jako kontynuacja dwóch serii: Applied Econometrics Papers (publikowanej w latach 2004-2015) oraz Working Paper Instytutu Demografii i Statystyki (publikowanej w latach 2009-2015).
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Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Behavioral Open Economy Model
(2025-03)We analyze the implications of adding boundedly rational agents a la Gabaix (2020) to the canonical New Keynesian open economy model. We show that accounting for myopia mitigates several ``puzzling" aspects of the relationship ... -
Monetary and fiscal policy in a two-country model with behavioral expectations
(2025-03)We check how monetary and fiscal policies (in particular their open-economy dimensions) are affected by expectations being behavioral in the spirit of Gabaix (2020). We first show that the data strongly favor this setting ... -
The Role of Fiscal Rules for Spending Multipliers in European Union Countries
(2025-02)"This paper focuses on the role of fiscal rules in shaping the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. We compare the fiscal multipliers across the European Union members and search for the drivers of their heterogeneity. ... -
Monetary-Fiscal Forward Guidance
(2025-03)When central banks announce future interest rate cuts, the expected costs of servicing government debt decrease, freeing up additional resources in future budgets. This paper demonstrates that if the rational-expectations ... -
Economic dynamics may be different than it seems: multiplicity of relevant economic cycles
(2025-01)A model of cyclical signals, trend and noise is developed, allowing more than one cycle per each variable and the composition of cycles to differ for each macroeconomic aggregate. Estimation and best-model selection result ... -
Is panel Currency Demand equation homogeneous, why not, and what it means for shadow economy measurement
(2025-01)Currency Demand Analysis – one of the most popular macroeconometric techniques of shadow economy (SE) measurement – builds on equation explaining the share of cash in circulation in broader monetary aggregates, estimated ... -
Inherit Money or Brains? The Role of Inheritance and Its Taxation in OLG Analysis
(2024-12)Motivated by ongoing debates about the effectiveness of inheritance taxation in reducing wealth concentration—especially in contexts marked by strong family ties and rising wealth accumulation—this study employs an overlapping ... -
Trip your rival up and win the election? The influence of inter- and intra-party competition on allocation of discretionary investment grants in Poland
(2024-11)To date, there have been dozens of publications confirming the existence of alignment bias or hometown bias in the allocation of intergovernmental grants. However, the assumption is typically made that members of one party ... -
Synergy or competition? Case heterogeneity and court performance in Polish first-instance civil and commercial courts
(2024-11)In this study, we use data on Polish civil and commercial courts of first instance to examine the determinants of the court output measured by the number of cases they adjudicate. Besides taking into account a caseload, ... -
The Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks: Evidence from a Bayesian SVAR Model With Uncertain Identifying Assumptions
(2024-11)We explore the effects of fiscal policy shocks on aggregate output and inflation. We use the novel Bayesian econometric methodology of Baumeister and Hamilton applied to the fiscal structural vector autoregressive model ... -
Lindhal meets Condorcet?
(2024-09)Although a Condorcet winner commands a majority in its favor, there is no guarantee of unanimity. In a Lindahl equilibrium, a suitably chosen system of personalized transfers and prices ensures unanimity, but there is no ... -
Global Value Chains and Equilibrium Exchange Rate: Evidence from Central European Economies
(2024-03)This paper proposes an extension of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) model that accounts for the trade linkages within the Global Value Chains (GVCs). In the modified FEER framework, both backward and forward ... -
Learning, experimentation and the convergence of the discovered preferences
(2024-03)In this article I study whether the interim preferences of the consumer can be expected to converge to their real preferences in the process of preference discovery. I construct a subjective expected utility model of the ... -
The European energy crisis and the US natural gas market dynamics. A structural VAR investigation
(2024-03)The Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered severe disruptions in the European energy markets and caused significant shifts in global natural gas flows. In this paper we investigate to what extent this European shock has ... -
For whom the bill tolls: redistributive consequences of a monetary-fiscal stimulus
(2024-02)During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments in the euro area sharply increased spending, while the European Central Bank eased financing conditions. We use this episode to assess how such a concerted monetary-fiscal stimulus ... -
Labor market institutions and the business cycle: The role of unemployment fears
(2023-12)We study the effects of labor market institutions (LMIs) in a general equilibrium model with search and matching frictions, endogenous separations, nominal rigidities, and uninsurable unemployment risk. By contrasting the ... -
The role of uncertainty and sentiment for intraday volatility connectedness between oil and financial markets
(2023-11)We quantify intraday volatility connectedness between oil and key financial assets and assess how it is related to uncertainty and sentiment measures. For that purpose, we integrate the well-known spillover methodology ... -
Natural Rate of Interest in a Small Open Economy with Application to CEE Countries
(2023-09)This paper extends the Laubach-Williams (2003) framework, which is widely used to estimate the natural rate of interest, to make it more suitable for studying small open economies. The model is augmented with consumer ... -
Supply chains shocks and inflation in Europe
(2023-09)This article quantifies the effects of supply chains disruptions on inflation in European economies. We apply the local projections method in a panel framework and estimate responses of nine measures of consumer and producer ... -
Hardware and Software over the Course of Long-Run Growth: Theory and Evidence
(2023-09)Output is generated through purposefully initiated physical action. Production needs energy and information, provided by respective factors: hardware (“brawn”), including physical labor and physical capital, and software ...
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