Would it have paid to be in the eurozone?

Abstract

Giving up an independent monetary policy and a exible exchange rate are the key sources of costs and bene ts entailed to joining a monetary union. In this paper we analyze their ex post impact on the stability of the Polish economy during the recent nancial crisis. To this end we construct a small open economy DSGE model and estimate it for Poland and the euro area. Then we run a counterfactual simulation, assuming Poland's euro area accession in 1q2007. The results are striking - volatilities of GDP and in ation increase substantially. In particular, had Poland adopted the euro, GDP growth would have oscillated between -6% and +9% (-9% to +11% under more extreme assumptions) instead of between 1% and 7%. We conclude that during the analyzed period independent monetary policy and, in particular, the exible exchange rate played an important stabilizing role for the Polish economy.