KAE Working Papers
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Celem serii KAE Working Papers jest natychmiastowe udostępnianie wyników badań naukowych środowisku akademickiemu, co pozwala na doskonalenie prowadzonych badań naukowych i bardziej intensywną dyskusję akademicką. Zapraszamy pracowników Kolegium oraz wszystkich studentów oraz współpracowników do publikowania aktualnych wyników badań w ramach serii. KAE Working Papers powstały w marcu 2016 r. jako kontynuacja dwóch serii: Applied Econometrics Papers (publikowanej w latach 2004-2015) oraz Working Paper Instytutu Demografii i Statystyki (publikowanej w latach 2009-2015).
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Global Value Chains and Equilibrium Exchange Rate: Evidence from Central European Economies
(2024-03)This paper proposes an extension of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) model that accounts for the trade linkages within the Global Value Chains (GVCs). In the modified FEER framework, both backward and forward ... -
Learning, experimentation and the convergence of the discovered preferences
(2024-03)In this article I study whether the interim preferences of the consumer can be expected to converge to their real preferences in the process of preference discovery. I construct a subjective expected utility model of the ... -
The European energy crisis and the US natural gas market dynamics. A structural VAR investigation
(2024-03)The Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered severe disruptions in the European energy markets and caused significant shifts in global natural gas flows. In this paper we investigate to what extent this European shock has ... -
For whom the bill tolls: redistributive consequences of a monetary-fiscal stimulus
(2024-02)During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments in the euro area sharply increased spending, while the European Central Bank eased financing conditions. We use this episode to assess how such a concerted monetary-fiscal stimulus ... -
Labor market institutions and the business cycle: The role of unemployment fears
(2023-12)We study the effects of labor market institutions (LMIs) in a general equilibrium model with search and matching frictions, endogenous separations, nominal rigidities, and uninsurable unemployment risk. By contrasting the ... -
The role of uncertainty and sentiment for intraday volatility connectedness between oil and financial markets
(2023-11)We quantify intraday volatility connectedness between oil and key financial assets and assess how it is related to uncertainty and sentiment measures. For that purpose, we integrate the well-known spillover methodology ... -
Natural Rate of Interest in a Small Open Economy with Application to CEE Countries
(2023-09)This paper extends the Laubach-Williams (2003) framework, which is widely used to estimate the natural rate of interest, to make it more suitable for studying small open economies. The model is augmented with consumer ... -
Supply chains shocks and inflation in Europe
(2023-09)This article quantifies the effects of supply chains disruptions on inflation in European economies. We apply the local projections method in a panel framework and estimate responses of nine measures of consumer and producer ... -
Hardware and Software over the Course of Long-Run Growth: Theory and Evidence
(2023-09)Output is generated through purposefully initiated physical action. Production needs energy and information, provided by respective factors: hardware (“brawn”), including physical labor and physical capital, and software ... -
On journal rankings and researchers' abilities
(2023-09)Over the last few years, ranking lists of academic journals have become one of the key indicators for evaluating individual researchers, departments and universities. How to optimally design such rankings? What can we learn ... -
How regional business cycles diffuse across space and time : evidence from a Bayesian Markov switching panel of GDP and unemployment in Poland
(2023-01)We investigate the regional business cycles at NUTS-3 granularity in Poland (N=73) using two variables in parallel: GDP dynamics and unemployment. The model allows for both idiosyncratic business cycle fluctuations in a ... -
A Theory of The Procyclical Effectiveness of Forward Guidance
(2022-12)I study the dependence of the forward guidance effectiveness on the level of economic slack. I use the model with price rigidities and uninsured unemployment risk and apply both analytical and numerical methods to study ... -
The Role of the Monetary Policy Stance for the Goverment Spending Multiplier in Poland
(2022-11)We empirically explore monetary and fiscal policy coordination in Poland. In particular, we study whether the empirical effects of a government spending shock on output depend on the stance of monetary policy. We find no ... -
Currency demandand MIMIC models : towards a structured hybrid model-based estimation of the shadow economy size
(2017-09)Model-based econometric techniques of the shadow economy estimation have been increasingly popular, but a systematic approach to getting the best of their complementarities has so far been missing. We review the dominant ... -
On the Optimal Labor Income Share
(2018-02)Labor's share of income has attracted interest in recent years reflecting its apparent decline. These falls, witnessed across many countries, are usually deemed undesirable. Any such assertion, however, begs the question ... -
Unraveling the economic performance of the CEEC countries. The role of exports and global value chains
(2018-02-08)In this study we assess the importance of exports and global value chains (GVC) participation for economic growth. Using novel methods and an extensive dataset, we decompose GDP growth in the Central and Eastern European ... -
Does a bank levy increase frictions on the interbank market?
(2018-03)The crisis has shown that a drop in liquidity, as well as the shortened maturity of interbank transactions, has caused many problems for banks. We analyze how the introduction of a bank levy on bank assets ... -
The Digital Era, Viewed From a Perspective of Millennia of Economic Growth
(2018-04)I propose a synthetic theory of economic growth and technological progress over the entire human history. Based on this theory as well as on the analogies with three previous eras (the hunter-gatherer era, the agricultural ... -
The non-linear nature of country risk and its implications for DSGE models
(2018-05)Country risk premia can substantially affect macroeconomic dynamics. We concentrate on one of their most important determinants - a country’s net foreign asset position and - in contrast to the existing research - investigate ... -
Value relevance of companies' financial statements in Poland
(2016-08)Paper presents three attempts to model the relationship between financial reports of the companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange and their market valuation. Main sections of the paper include: (1) overview of the ...
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